In September, Brazilian corn exports totaled 3423.8 KMT that is down 42% from a record 5914.4 KMT in September 2017. Moreover, they were 7% below the five-year average not only due to this season’s decline in export potential. In August, the country’s exporters were still focused on soybeans, i.e. the corn export season in Brazil was just beginning.
Brazil reduced corn supplies to the EU market in September against the same month in MY 2017/18, and this advantaged Ukraine at the beginning of the new season. In September, Ukrainian corn exports were up 137% on the year and 104% above the five-year average. 90% of this volume went to the European Union, while in September 2017/18 the EU share in Ukrainian exports equaled just 20%, UkrAgroConsult’s analysts note.
The geographical proximity and gradually decreasing export price will partially contribute to the partial realization of Ukraine’s record export potential at the expense of the EU market this season.
In October-November 2017 it was Brazilian export price that became more attractive to European buyers. In addition, hopes are pinned to a possible rise in purchases by China, in view of falling soybean imports. At the moment, the country has quite abundant carryover stocks of coarse grains after high 2017/18 imports.
Full version of the article is available to subscribers for weekly market report “Black Sea Grain” by UkrAgroConsult.
Analytical report "Black Sea Grain" contains detailed information on the latest trends in grain exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior, crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea region.
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