Consulting Agency UkrAgroConsult
WHEAT. Over the period under review (September 06-13), CBOT wheat prices lost 2.96%, reports UkrAgroConsult.
The main bearish factors were the following:
- rapid spring wheat harvesting in the USA (93% of the intended area compared to 85% - the five-year average);
- publication of the September USDA WASDE report: raised world wheat production estimate in the 2018/19 season (+3.4 MMT), as well as an increase in its final world stocks forecast (+2.33 MMT);
- total US wheat sales since the beginning of the season are still behind the last year's pace due to strong competition with Black Sea wheat.
CORN. During the reporting week (September 06-13), CBOT corn prices decreased by 4.9%, reports UkrAgroConsult.
The following factors pressured the market:
- updated US corn productivity estimate in the USDA WASDE report, which surpassed market expectations;
- world corn production forecast for the 2018/19 season was revised upwards by 8 MMT mainly owing to an increase for the USA and the EU. World corn final stocks estimates in the 2018/19 season were also raised;
- corn harvesting in the USA;
- improvement of corn conditions in the USA over the week. Contrary to market expectations, the share of corn in good and excellent conditions increased to 68% (67% the previous week, 61% in 2017).
More detailed information on the latest trends in grain exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior as well as on crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers for weekly market report "Black Sea Grain" by UkrAgroConsult.
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