Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, is expected to increase grain exports in the 2020/21 marketing season which starts on July 1, one of Moscow's leading agriculture consultancies, SovEcon, said in a note on Thursday.
SovEcon expects the country's exports to be the second largest in its history after shipments reached an all-time high in the 2017/18 season, when it harvested a record crop.
It sees Russia's total 2020/2021 grain exports at 47.4 million tonnes, up 3.9 million tonnes from this season, it said. Of that, wheat exports are expected to reach 36.8 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes more than in 2019/2020.
High exports will be supported by a larger crop in 2020, SovEcon said, as well as lower harvests in major rivals such as Ukraine and the European Union.
SovEcon currently sees Russia's 2020 grain crop at 126.3 million tonnes, including 81.2 million tonnes of wheat. Last year it produced 121.2 million tonnes of grain, including 74.5 million tonnes of wheat.
State regulation of the sector is going to be one of the main factors that will determine export volumes in the new season, SovEcon said.
Russia's agriculture ministry has said it could keep using the grain export quota mechanism imposed during the coronavirus outbreak this spring in the new season.
Russia is considering raising its almost-depleted state grain stockpile to 6 million tonnes, which is equal to one month of domestic consumption, the RIA news agency reported on Thursday, citing state grain trader United Grain Company.
SovEcon is currently more optimistic than some other analysts about Russia's 2020 crop, which is due to be harvested in summer, and the country's 2020/21 exports. However, all expect exports to be large.
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