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September’s USDA report fell short of market expectations again



Consulting Agency


There is still a wide gap between USDA estimates and those made by Black Sea analytical agencies, UkrAgroConsult reports.

Wheat. The forecast for Black Sea wheat production and exports ended up unchanged, although Russian analytical agencies had repeatedly lifted their estimates over the last month. As of today, most of them estimate production at 83 MMT, while the USDA sticks to its figure of 78 MMT.

Corn. The corn crop estimates were nevertheless cut, though to a lesser degree than expected: to 38.5 MMT for Ukraine (-1 MMT) and to 0.3 MMT for Russia (-15 MMT). “Market” expectations for Ukraine are lower.

Barley. The production estimates for Ukraine and Kazakhstan are left unchanged, with that for Russia raised by 3 MMT.

Overall, the forecast for Black Sea grain production in MY 2020/21 was increased by 1%, to 205.2 MMT, with the export forecast left at 109.9 MMT.

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