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Technical Analysis 13/07/2020

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Author:

Consulting Agency

UkrAgroConsult

Wheat September 2020.

SRW futures were down the most on Monday, with losses of 4 to 11 cents. HRW futures were 3 to 6 3/4 cents in the red at the closing bell. MPLS spring wheat futures are down 6 1/2 to 7 cents so far. Winter wheat harvest is 68% complete nationally, but finished in AR, TX, and OK. KS wheat harvest still had 5% to go as of the 12th. The weekly update reported spring wheat was 80% headed, which is still 5 ppts behind average. SD spring wheat was 95% headed, compared to their average of 91%. The weekly Export Inspections report showed wheat shipments at 624,211 MT, which is up 67% wk/wk and up 79% yr/yr. SRW wheat was the top shipped variety, with 44.9% of the total. China was the top destination for the week’s shipments with 18% of the total. China and Taiwan collectively accounted for 32.5% of the week’s wheat exports. IKAR lowered their most recent Russian wheat forecast to match USDA at 76.5 MMT. Egypt issued an international wheat tender for August delivery.

  • Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.24 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents,
  • Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.49, down 3 cents,
  • Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.18 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents. 

 

Pivot PointsJul

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

523.72

524.30

525.46

526.04

527.20

527.78

528.94

Fibonacci

524.30

524.96

525.38

526.04

526.70

527.12

527.78

Camarilla

526.14

526.30

526.46

526.04

526.78

526.94

527.10

Woodie's

524.00

524.44

525.74

526.18

527.48

527.92

529.22

DeMark's

-

-

525.75

526.18

527.49

-

-

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

48.464

Neutral

STOCH(9,6)

29.637

Sell

STOCHRSI(14)

33.804

Sell

MACD(12,26)

-0.690

Sell

ADX(14)

12.129

Neutral

Williams %R

-71.405

Sell

CCI(14)

-31.2477

Neutral

ATR(14)

2.3193

Less Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

0.0000

Neutral

Ultimate Oscillator

56.461

Buy

ROC

-1.034

Sell

Bull/Bear Power(13)

-0.1640

Sell

Buy: 1

Sell: 6

Neutral: 4

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

Moving Averages.

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

525.48
Buy

525.78
Buy

MA10

525.29
Buy

526.37
Buy

MA20

528.23
Sell

526.98
Sell

MA50

526.90
Sell

524.32
Buy

MA100

516.29
Buy

517.94
Buy

MA200

503.30
Buy

508.55
Buy

Buy: 9

Sell: 3

Summary:BUY

 

Corn September 2020.

Corn followed Friday’s drops by adding 6 1/2 to 8 1/2 cents more to the downside today. Traders responded to the weather forecasts showing more potential rains since Friday’s forecasts. NASS reported corn silking at 29% after the close, compared to the 5-yr average of 32%. NASS had 3% of corn in dough stage, which is even with the 5-yr average. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report this morning showed 902,623 MT (35.5 mbu) on the week ending July 9. That was down 4.84 mbu wk/wk, but was 30.7% above the same week last year. China got 13.2% of the shipments, but Japan and Mexico were each over 200k MT as the top destinations. Using weekly data, the report has accumulated shipments at 1.385 bbu with 8 weeks remaining. The spot DDGS to soymeal ratio is 0.73 in China, compared to 0.42 stateside. ArcMercosul reported Brazilian second corn crop harvest is 34.9% of planted, compared to 49% at the same time last year.

  • Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.34, down 6 1/2 cents,
  • Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.28 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,
  • Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.36 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,
  • Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.47 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents.

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

328.04

328.21

328.54

328.71

329.04

329.21

329.54

Fibonacci

328.21

328.40

328.52

328.71

328.90

329.02

329.21

Camarilla

328.74

328.79

328.83

328.71

328.93

328.97

329.02

Woodie's

328.14

328.26

328.64

328.76

329.14

329.26

329.64

DeMark's

-

-

328.63

328.75

329.13

-

-

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

29.711

Sell

STOCH(9,6)

22.216

Sell

STOCHRSI(14)

88.111

Overbought

MACD(12,26)

-3.350

Sell

ADX(14)

20.861

Sell

Williams %R

-84.033

Oversold

CCI(14)

-76.4553

Sell

ATR(14)

1.3943

Less Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

-0.2636

Sell

Ultimate Oscillator

45.863

Sell

ROC

-0.977

Sell

Bull/Bear Power(13)

-1.1560

Sell

Buy: 0

Sell: 9

Neutral: 0

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

328.60
Sell

328.58
Sell

MA10

328.85
Sell

329.02
Sell

MA20

330.11
Sell

331.29
Sell

MA50

339.66
Sell

336.43
Sell

MA100

343.16
Sell

340.16
Sell

MA200

342.30
Sell

339.94
Sell

Buy: 0

Sell: 12

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

Soybeans August 2020.

Despite the large drops, the new crop soy/corn ratio is at 2.601, up 0.17 from Friday. Soymeal traded $7.7 to $7.9/ton in the red. Bean oil futures closed the session with losses of 14 to 15 points. CME’s synthetic soybean crush spread (not tradeable) for September futures was a four year low (for the second month spread) at 61 1/2. The July spread was at 54. Soybeans blooming were 8% above normal, with 48% of the 2020/21 crop blooming as of July 12. NASS reported that 11% of beans were setting pods, which is 1ppt ahead of average. Bean conditions ratings were 68% good/ex, which is down 3 percentage points from last week. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 17.98 mbu of beans shipped on the week ending July 9. That was down 7% wk/wk and 43% below the same week last year. Of the week’s shipments, 5.9 mbu (33%) were destined for China. With 90,458 MT, Indonesia was the top non China destination. MYTD bean exports are at 1.391 bbu, that is below last year’s pace and is the lowest for week 45 since the 12/13 MY. Iran is tendering for 200k MT of soymeal.

  • Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.76 1/2, down 15 cents,
  • Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.74, down 13 1/4 cents,
  • Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.71 1/2, down 14 cents,
  • Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.75 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents,
  • Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $284.60, down $7.90
  • Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $28.08, down $0.14

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

871.96

873.17

873.83

875.04

875.70

876.91

877.57

Fibonacci

873.17

873.88

874.33

875.04

875.75

876.20

876.91

Camarilla

873.99

874.16

874.33

875.04

874.67

874.84

875.01

Woodie's

871.70

873.04

873.57

874.91

875.44

876.78

877.31

DeMark's

-

-

873.51

874.88

875.37

-

-

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

33.308

Sell

STOCH(9,6)

53.466

Neutral

STOCHRSI(14)

85.047

Overbought

MACD(12,26)

-3.670

Sell

ADX(14)

37.525

Sell

Williams %R

-66.261

Sell

CCI(14)

-44.1487

Neutral

ATR(14)

2.3379

High Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

-0.0814

Sell

Ultimate Oscillator

54.679

Buy

ROC

-0.668

Sell

Bull/Bear Power(13)

-2.5940

Sell

Buy: 1

Sell: 7

Neutral: 2

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

875.00
Sell

874.67
Sell

MA10

874.09
Buy

875.49
Sell

MA20

877.52
Sell

877.90
Sell

MA50

886.55
Sell

883.66
Sell

MA100

890.93
Sell

887.25
Sell

MA200

889.11
Sell

887.05
Sell

Buy: 1

Sell: 11

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

UkrAgroConsult

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