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Technical Analysis 29/6/2020

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Consulting Agency

UkrAgroConsult

Wheat July 2020.

The U.S. wheat complex starts the new week in the black, save for July HRS. SRW was up the most on Monday with double digit gains through Sept. HRW futures were 7 1/4 to 8 3/4 cents higher on the day. MPLS July HRS was down by 1 1/2 cents on Monday, but the other front months gained 3/4 to a penny. NASS reported that, as of June 28, 41% of winter wheat was harvested. In Kansas, winter wheat harvest is working northward through the state. Day 10 reports show variable yields. The Crop Progress report showed KS is 47% harvested, compared to 51% average. NASS reported 36% of the 2020 spring wheat crop was headed as of June 28. The 5-yr average is 45%. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report, with data from the week ending June 25, showed 515,359 MT of wheat was shipped. That brough MYTD wheat exports to 2 MMT, leading last MY’s pace by 16.5k MT. The Stats Can acreage report listed 2020 wheat acreage at 25 million acres, 200k below expectations, but up 400,000 from 2019. Durum was up 800k acres yr/yr to 5.7 million. Algeria is tendering for 50,000 MT and Jordan is seeking 120,000 MT. South Korea’s wheat tender is for 70,000 MT and November delivery.

  • Jul 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.85 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents,
  • Jul 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.28 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents,
  • Jul 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.97, down 1 1/2 cents

Summary:STRONG SELL
Moving Averages:STRONG SELLBuy (1)Sell (11)
Technical Indicators:SELLBuy (3)Sell (5)
Pivot PointsJun 30, 2020 03:57AM GMT

Technical IndicatorsJun 30, 2020 03:57AM GMT

Moving AveragesJun 30, 2020 03:57AM GMT

Corn July 2020.

Corn futures staged the biggest rally for the front contract since March 19 today. December futures closed at $3.34 3/4, with the 9 1/2 cent gain recovering 48% of last week’s drop to the contract low. The other front months were up 2.14% to 2.92% on the day. After the close, USDA reported corn silking at 4%, trailing the 5-yr average of 7%. USDA’s Export Inspections report showed that corn shipments were 48.61 mbu on the week ending June 25. That was down slightly wk/wk but 333% above the same week last year. Japan was the top destination for the week with 308,453 MT (25% of total). With 288,698 MT (23% of tot), Mexico was the second largest destination for the week. Also 144,078 MT of corn was shipped to China.
Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.26 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents,
Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.28 3/4, up 9 1/2 cents,
Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.34 3/4, up 9 1/2 cents,
Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.45 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents.

Summary:STRONG BUY
Moving Averages:BUYBuy (9)Sell (3)
Technical Indicators:STRONG BUYBuy (9)Sell (0)
Pivot PointsJun 30, 2020 03:52AM GMT

Technical IndicatorsJun 30, 2020 03:52AM GMT

Moving AveragesJun 30, 2020 03:52AM GMT

Soybeans July 2020.

Soybean futures start the shortened week with some short green candles. Old crop futures were up the most on Monday, with gains of 1 1/2 cents. The new crop futures closed fractionally to a penny higher on the day. Soymeal futures ended the day $1.60 to $1.70/ton lower. August soymeal closed at $283.60/ton, setting a contract low at $283.30/ton. Bean oil futures rallied 37 to 42 points. NASS reported bean emergence at 95% which is 4% above the 5-yr average. Soybean blooming was at 14% as of Sunday, the average is 11% for this date. The weekly Export Inspections report showed that 11.9 mbu of soybeans were shipped on the week ending June 25. That was up from last week, but down 55% yr/yr. MYTD bean shipments were at 1.352 bbu, which is 82% of USDA’s forecast with 10 weeks left. Traders estimate USDA will report May bean crush between 180 to 182 mbu on Wednesday The average estimate for bean oil stocks on hand is 2.37b lbs. Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.66 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,

  • Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.61 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,
  • Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.58 1/4, up 1 cent,
  • Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.61 1/2, up 1/4 cent,
  • Jul 20 Soybean Meal closed at $280.50, down $1.60
  • Jul 20 Soybean Oil closed at $27.62, up $0.42

Summary:STRONG BUY
Moving Averages:BUYBuy (11)Sell (1)
Technical Indicators:STRONG BUYBuy (9)Sell (0)
Pivot PointsJun 30, 2020 03:59AM GMT

Technical IndicatorsJun 30, 2020 03:59AM GMT

Moving AveragesJun 30, 2020 03:59AM GMT

 

UkrAgroConsult

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