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Technical Analysis 8/03/2020

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Author:

Consulting Agency

UkrAgroConsult

Wheat September 2020.

Wheat futures recovered from midday lows, but still dropped by double digits on the first trade day of the new month. KC wheat was the weakest, with 10 1/4 to 11 3/4 cent losses. SRW futures lost 7 1/4 to 10 1/4 cents in the front months. Spring wheat futures pulled back 5 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents. Winter wheat harvest progressed 4% on the week to 85%; the 5-yr average is 88%. Spring wheat harvest was 5% cut. The average is 10% harvested by August 2. Spring wheat conditions were up 6 points on the Brugler500 index to 378. The weekly Export Inspections report from USDA showed 500,100 MT of wheat shipped on the week ending July 30. That was down 43,900 MT wk/wk, but was 83,933 MT above the same week last year. HRW and white wheat were the top varieties exported on the week, and 71.1% of the total.

  • Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.21, down 10 1/4 cents,
  • Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.30 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents,
  • Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.06 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents.

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

517.54

517.71

518.04

518.21

518.54

518.71

519.04

Fibonacci

517.71

517.90

518.02

518.21

518.40

518.52

518.71

Camarilla

518.24

518.29

518.33

518.21

518.43

518.47

518.52

Woodie's

517.64

517.76

518.14

518.26

518.64

518.76

519.14

DeMark's

-

-

518.13

518.25

518.63

-

-

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

34.568

Sell

STOCH(9,6)

20.830

Sell

STOCHRSI(14)

64.997

Buy

MACD(12,26)

-2.700

Sell

ADX(14)

26.013

Neutral

Williams %R

-87.719

Oversold

CCI(14)

-88.5349

Sell

ATR(14)

2.1371

Less Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

-1.5121

Sell

Ultimate Oscillator

25.634

Oversold

ROC

-1.189

Sell

Bull/Bear Power(13)

-3.9760

Sell

Buy: 1

Sell: 7

Neutral: 1

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

518.52
Sell

518.72
Sell

MA10

519.34
Sell

519.82
Sell

MA20

522.14
Sell

522.01
Sell

MA50

527.23
Sell

525.16
Sell

MA100

527.76
Sell

527.43
Sell

MA200

529.77
Sell

528.35
Sell

Buy: 0

Sell: 12

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

Corn September 2020.

Corn futures prices strengthened by 3/4 to 2 cents on the first trade day of August. March and May contracts were up the most on the day, each closing within a 1/4 of the high. Corn conditions were UNCH at 380 on the Brugler500 index. USDA reported 378.9 mbu of corn processed for ethanol in June. That was up 26% from the record low in May, but still 17% lower yr/yr. For the MYTD that is 4.017 bbu with 2 months remaining. Corn exports from the week ending July 30 were 28.193 mbu. That was down 81.36 mbu from the week prior, but compares to 25.425 mbu from the same week yr/yr. Accumulated milo exports are 143% larger yr/yr, from the week’s report as China was shipped 170,782 MT. Brazil shipped out 4.15 MMT of corn in July, down from 5.9 MMT from last year. 

  • Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.17 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,
  • Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.28 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,
  • Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.40 1/4, up 2 cents,
  • May 21 Corn closed at $3.48, up 2 cents. 

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

314.76

315.13

315.38

315.75

316.00

316.37

316.62

Fibonacci

315.13

315.37

315.51

315.75

315.99

316.13

316.37

Camarilla

315.45

315.51

315.56

315.75

315.68

315.73

315.79

Woodie's

314.68

315.09

315.30

315.71

315.92

316.33

316.54

DeMark's

-

-

315.25

315.69

315.87

-

-

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

44.957

Sell

STOCH(9,6)

36.587

Sell

STOCHRSI(14)

15.172

Oversold

MACD(12,26)

-0.130

Sell

ADX(14)

27.077

Sell

Williams %R

-74.666

Sell

CCI(14)

-89.7279

Sell

ATR(14)

0.9414

High Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

-0.3057

Sell

Ultimate Oscillator

48.978

Sell

ROC

-0.158

Sell

Bull/Bear Power(13)

-0.9680

Sell

Buy: 0

Sell: 10

Neutral: 0

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

315.88
Buy

316.02
Sell

MA10

316.48
Sell

316.29
Sell

MA20

316.63
Sell

316.44
Sell

MA50

316.43
Sell

316.75
Sell

MA100

317.56
Sell

318.09
Sell

MA200

321.64
Sell

321.64
Sell

Buy: 1

Sell: 11

Summary:SELL

 

 

Soybeans August 2020. 

The front month soybean futures gained 2 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents on Monday. August soybeans closed UNCH at $8.97 1/2 per bushel, which is still a 4 1/2 cent premium to Sept. Preliminary OI as of Friday was just 2,250 contracts for the in delivery Aug beans. The bid/ask spreads were as wide as 2 cents at times today due to that lack of liquidity. The products were mixed with $1.80 to $2.20/ton drops in meal and 64 to 76 point gains in soy oil. In tonight’s weekly Crop Progress update, 85% of new crop beans were blooming and 59% were setting pods. That is 3% and 5% ahead of average respectively. Conditions improved 1% to 73% good/ex with a 1 point bump to 381 on the Brugler500. USDA’s Fats & Oils report had June crush about 500k bushels below expectations as 177.26 mbu were processed. That was down 1% month to month, but 12.5% above June ’19. Soy oil stocks were tighter than expected with 2.271 billion lbs. USDA’s Export Inspections report showed 20.266 mbu of beans were shipped on the week ending July 30, up 17% wk/wk but down 47% yr/yr. MYTD soybean exports via weekly data is 89.4% of USDA’s forecast, at 1.447 bbu shipped. Brazil exported 10.37 MMT of soybeans in July, according to gov’t data. That compares to 7.44 MMT from July ’19.

  • Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97 1/2, unch,
  • Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.93, up 2 3/4 cents,
  • Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.96 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,
  • Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $9.01 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,
  • Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $287.10, down $2.20
  • Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.67, up $0.76

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

Fibonacci

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

Camarilla

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

Woodie's

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

893.50

DeMark's

-

-

893.50

893.50

893.50

-

-

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

42.884

Sell

STOCH(9,6)

35.815

Sell

STOCHRSI(14)

55.924

Buy

MACD(12,26)

-1.280

Sell

ADX(14)

72.202

Oversold

Williams %R

-63.830

Sell

CCI(14)

-73.2297

Sell

ATR(14)

2.5621

High Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

-1.0443

Sell

Ultimate Oscillator

44.370

Sell

ROC

-0.777

Sell

Bull/Bear Power(13)

-3.4100

Sell

Buy: 1

Sell: 9

Neutral: 0

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

893.28
Buy

893.62
Sell

MA10

894.43
Sell

894.60
Sell

MA20

897.31
Sell

895.91
Sell

MA50

897.14
Sell

896.53
Sell

MA100

895.20
Sell

896.73
Sell

MA200

898.48
Sell

896.49
Sell

Buy: 1

Sell: 11

Summary:SELL

 

 

UkrAgroConsult

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