Technical Analysis 8/03/2020

Wheat September 2020.

Wheat futures recovered from midday lows, but still dropped by double digits on the first trade day of the new month. KC wheat was the weakest, with 10 1/4 to 11 3/4 cent losses. SRW futures lost 7 1/4 to 10 1/4 cents in the front months. Spring wheat futures pulled back 5 1/2 to 7 1/2 cents. Winter wheat harvest progressed 4% on the week to 85%; the 5-yr average is 88%. Spring wheat harvest was 5% cut. The average is 10% harvested by August 2. Spring wheat conditions were up 6 points on the Brugler500 index to 378. The weekly Export Inspections report from USDA showed 500,100 MT of wheat shipped on the week ending July 30. That was down 43,900 MT wk/wk, but was 83,933 MT above the same week last year. HRW and white wheat were the top varieties exported on the week, and 71.1% of the total.

• Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.21, down 10 1/4 cents,
• Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.30 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents,
• Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.06 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents.

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

Corn September 2020.

Corn futures prices strengthened by 3/4 to 2 cents on the first trade day of August. March and May contracts were up the most on the day, each closing within a 1/4 of the high. Corn conditions were UNCH at 380 on the Brugler500 index. USDA reported 378.9 mbu of corn processed for ethanol in June. That was up 26% from the record low in May, but still 17% lower yr/yr. For the MYTD that is 4.017 bbu with 2 months remaining. Corn exports from the week ending July 30 were 28.193 mbu. That was down 81.36 mbu from the week prior, but compares to 25.425 mbu from the same week yr/yr. Accumulated milo exports are 143% larger yr/yr, from the week’s report as China was shipped 170,782 MT. Brazil shipped out 4.15 MMT of corn in July, down from 5.9 MMT from last year.

• Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.17 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,
• Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.28 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents,
• Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.40 1/4, up 2 cents,
• May 21 Corn closed at $3.48, up 2 cents.

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

Soybeans August 2020. 

The front month soybean futures gained 2 1/2 to 4 1/2 cents on Monday. August soybeans closed UNCH at $8.97 1/2 per bushel, which is still a 4 1/2 cent premium to Sept. Preliminary OI as of Friday was just 2,250 contracts for the in delivery Aug beans. The bid/ask spreads were as wide as 2 cents at times today due to that lack of liquidity. The products were mixed with $1.80 to $2.20/ton drops in meal and 64 to 76 point gains in soy oil. In tonight’s weekly Crop Progress update, 85% of new crop beans were blooming and 59% were setting pods. That is 3% and 5% ahead of average respectively. Conditions improved 1% to 73% good/ex with a 1 point bump to 381 on the Brugler500. USDA’s Fats & Oils report had June crush about 500k bushels below expectations as 177.26 mbu were processed. That was down 1% month to month, but 12.5% above June ’19. Soy oil stocks were tighter than expected with 2.271 billion lbs. USDA’s Export Inspections report showed 20.266 mbu of beans were shipped on the week ending July 30, up 17% wk/wk but down 47% yr/yr. MYTD soybean exports via weekly data is 89.4% of USDA’s forecast, at 1.447 bbu shipped. Brazil exported 10.37 MMT of soybeans in July, according to gov’t data. That compares to 7.44 MMT from July ’19.

• Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.97 1/2, unch,
• Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.93, up 2 3/4 cents,
• Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.96 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,
• Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $9.01 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,
• Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $287.10, down $2.20
• Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.67, up $0.76

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

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