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Technical Analysis 9/09/2020

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Author:

Consulting Agency

UkrAgroConsult

Wheat December 2020.

Last week Chicago hit a 19-week high. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed 25.564 mbu of wheat shipments for the week ending 9/3. That was up 5.94 mbu wk/wk and 10.37 mbu yr/yr. Spring wheat was reported by USDA at 83% cut through the 6th, up from 67% last week but still 5 percentage points behind the 5-yr average. Winter wheat was reported at 5% planted, which is 2 ppts ahead of the average pace. Winter wheat planting in WA was up from 16% to 32% complete, compared to their average of 17%  U.S. Chicago wheat putting in some resistance now, not a clear double top but resistance, that 200 day MA remains just below now, KC wheat easing lower as well and now back below its 200 day MA too.  MATIF wheat hitting its resistance at 1.88+ as history has shown as well. US Wheat remains the world’s most expensive, Black Sea the cheapest. FX market helping economics in Russia, Market still realizes that Russian farmers remain reluctant sellers- the ‘system’ has created this attitude over the past few years and it continues to work regardless of crop size.  The recent push higher in FOB prices now has demand a bit more silent/reluctant to pay up as well, Black Sea weather is not the most satisfying and just like  Western EU could use some rain, southern parts of Russia getting some, but more is needed, winter grains plantings need a few good rainy days.

  • Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.44 1/4, down 6 cents,
  • Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.69 1/2, down 3 cents,
  • Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.36 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents.

 

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

Fibonacci

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

Camarilla

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

Woodie's

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

544.75

DeMark's

-

-

544.75

544.75

544.75

-

-

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

40.182

Sell

STOCH(9,6)

39.493

Sell

STOCHRSI(14)

76.103

Overbought

MACD(12,26)

-1.780

Sell

ADX(14)

31.526

Sell

Williams %R

-65.278

Sell

CCI(14)

-45.2871

Neutral

ATR(14)

1.9036

Less Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

0.0000

Neutral

Ultimate Oscillator

43.519

Sell

ROC

-0.390

Sell

Bull/Bear Power(13)

-1.2120

Sell

Buy: 0

Sell: 8

Neutral: 2

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

 

Moving AveragesSep 08, 2020 10:46PM GMT

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

544.70
Sell

544.69
Sell

MA10

544.57
Buy

544.98
Sell

MA20

545.79
Sell

546.22
Sell

MA50

550.51
Sell

549.18
Sell

MA100

552.76
Sell

549.24
Sell

MA200

544.63
Sell

543.06
Buy

Buy: 2

Sell: 10

Summary:STRONG SELL

 

 

 

Corn September 2020.

Market continues to ask the question about China demand. Looking at the weather and possible typhoons there it still possible to have growing demand from China, however, seems the peak demand is behind us at this point. The weekly Export Inspections report had corn shipments from the week ending 09/03 at 781,838 MT. That was split 547,716 MT of old crop and 234,122 MT for 2020/21 crop. Weekly data suggest 2019/20’s corn shipments were 1.662 bbu. The Crop Progress report this afternoon had 97% of the 2020/21 corn crop in the dough stage as of 9/6, and 79% dented. NASS also reported 25% of new crop corn was mature, led by NC and TX with 88% and 73% of their crops mature. NASS reported the week’s condition ratings at 61% good/ex for a Brugler500 score of 357. That was UNCH from last week’s score.

  • Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.51, up 3 3/4 cents,
  • Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.61 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,
  • Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.72, up 3 1/2 cents,
  • May 21 Corn closed at $3.78 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents.  

 

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

347.59

348.17

349.09

349.67

350.59

351.17

352.09

Fibonacci

348.17

348.74

349.10

349.67

350.24

350.60

351.17

Camarilla

349.59

349.73

349.86

349.67

350.14

350.27

350.41

Woodie's

347.75

348.25

349.25

349.75

350.75

351.25

352.25

DeMark's

-

-

349.38

349.81

350.88

-

-

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

55.492

Buy

STOCH(9,6)

36.905

Sell

STOCHRSI(14)

61.380

Buy

MACD(12,26)

0.060

Buy

ADX(14)

21.080

Sell

Williams %R

-39.286

Buy

CCI(14)

6.7120

Neutral

ATR(14)

1.0543

Less Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

0.0000

Neutral

Ultimate Oscillator

53.913

Buy

ROC

-0.779

Sell

Bull/Bear Power(13)

2.3180

Buy

Buy: 6

Sell: 3

Neutral: 2

Summary:STRONG BUY

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

348.60
Buy

349.13
Buy

MA10

348.55
Buy

349.24
Buy

MA20

350.06
Buy

349.06
Buy

MA50

348.00
Buy

348.53
Buy

MA100

348.10
Buy

347.68
Buy

MA200

345.79
Buy

344.11
Buy

Buy: 12

Sell: 0

Summary:BUY

 

 

Soybeans November 2020.

This now marks the 11th straight session of higher trading days for soybeans.  Crop conditions expected to hold steady/decline slightly, some needed rains fell over the long weekend but cold temps now remain, the exact impact of all this is a bit unclear but the market gapped higher to start today.  Oil gapped higher as well and remains higher as well. USDA announced two large new crop bean export sales to China this morning, the first was for 400,000 MT and the other was for 264,000 MT. The weekly Export Inspections report had soybean shipments at 1.295 MMT for the week ending Sept 3. That was split 830,200 MT and 465,262 MT for old and new crop respectively.  China Aug meat imports fall 17%, but still YTD imports remain +73% vs LY as China’s domestic supply is short.  Per last week, Soybeans closed up 19 cents, meal up 8.2, and oil down 31 pts. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 20% of new crop beans were dropping leaves, compared to the 5-yr average of 16%. USDA’s Ag Attaché sees China’s soybean production at 18 MMT for 2020/21. They also foresee 93 MMT of crush opening the door for a 4.4% increase to bean imports, @ 95 MMT.

  • Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $9.73, up 3 1/2 cents,
  • Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.73, up 5 cents,
  • Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $9.78 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,
  • Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $9.77, up 3 1/4 cents,
  • Oct 20 Soybean Meal closed at $309.40, down $2.70
  • Oct 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.27, up $0.50.

 

 

 

Pivot Points

Name

S3

S2

S1

Pivot Points

R1

R2

R3

Classic

970.62

971.37

972.62

973.37

974.62

975.37

976.62

Fibonacci

971.37

972.13

972.61

973.37

974.13

974.61

975.37

Camarilla

973.33

973.51

973.70

973.37

974.06

974.25

974.43

Woodie's

970.88

971.50

972.88

973.50

974.88

975.50

976.88

DeMark's

-

-

973.00

973.56

975.00

-

-

 

 

Technical Indicators

Name

Value

Action

RSI(14)

58.213

Buy

STOCH(9,6)

70.879

Buy

STOCHRSI(14)

62.088

Buy

MACD(12,26)

0.830

Buy

ADX(14)

25.019

Buy

Williams %R

-19.512

Overbought

CCI(14)

56.9338

Buy

ATR(14)

3.7857

High Volatility

Highs/Lows(14)

0.6871

Buy

Ultimate Oscillator

46.179

Sell

ROC

-0.039

Sell

Bull/Bear Power(13)

5.7740

Buy

Buy: 8

Sell: 2

Neutral: 0

Summary:STRONG BUY

 

 

Moving Averages

Period

Simple

Exponential

MA5

972.35
Buy

972.11
Buy

MA10

969.50
Buy

971.61
Buy

MA20

971.93
Buy

970.80
Buy

MA50

968.50
Buy

967.86
Buy

MA100

961.85
Buy

961.74
Buy

MA200

949.11
Buy

950.06
Buy

Buy: 12

Sell: 0

Summary:BUY

 

UkrAgroConsult

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