Technical Analysis 9/23/2020

Wheat December 2020.

Front month wheat futures closed the midweek session in the red. Front month HRS wheat futures fell 3 3/4 to 6 3/4 cents on the day. HRW futures closed down by 7 to 7 3/4 cents. CBT futures closed the session with 7 1/4 to 9 cents lower. BAGE estimates Argentina 2020/21 wheat production at 17.5 MMT, down 3.5 MMT from the May estimate. USDA has Argentine wheat output at 19.5 MMT for 2020/21. South Korea purchased 65,000 MT of feed optional origin feed wheat. Japan’s MOA issued a wheat tender seeking 86,027 MT. Black Sea region doing good with the continued demand and some short coverings. Plenty headlines focus per the fact that Russia might consider some type of quotas for month of January forward, however, still couldn’t be viewed as the clear statement. Russian export most ikely to still fall within expected levels of 38 mmt+. However, the dryness headlines are everywhere, so this hot topic remains the same. Farmers sits on the grain waiting for the price fluctuations and bigger demand. Not sure if rains right now could make farmers sell a bit.

• Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.49, down 9 cents,
• Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.84 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,
• Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.33, down 6 3/4 cents.

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

Corn December 2020.  

By the close, front month corn futures had receded 1/2 to 1 3/4 cents. Ahead of the Export sales report, analysts estimate between 1.05 and 1.8 MMT of corn bookings for the week ending 9/17. Market is positioned to favor the bears and expectations remain the yields might just impress a bit, the corn market remains the one with fundamental weight. Weather over the coming few weeks also will push for a nice easy harvest. MACD lines move kind of sideways and the whole market is looking for the new reports and estimates to make new changes. MA line is going to be the first resistance to beat and we will see soon if its going to happen or not. EIA average daily ethanol production for the week ending 9/18 was 906,000 bpd. That was 20,000 bpd lower than the week prior, and a 13 week low. Stocks were back up by 199k barrels to 19.997 million. Ethanol FOB prices were $1.489/gal which was down 2.7 cents wk/wk. Brazil’s FOB prices were $1.617/gal for the week ending 9/23 as reported by U.S. Grains Council.

• Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.68 1/2, down 3/4 cent,
• Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.77 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents,
• May 21 Corn closed at $3.83, down 1 1/2 cents,
• Jul 21 Corn closed at $3.86 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents.

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

Soybeans November 2020.

At Wednesday’s closing bell front month soybean futures were down by 3 1/2 to 5 3/4 cents. The national average soybean basis from cmdtyView was 56.67 cents under Nov on 9/23. Compared to last year, that is 25 c/bu stronger. Meal futures maintained their rally, closing the midweek session with gains of $2.7 to $4.8/ton. Bean oil futures fell back another 80 to 98 points on the day. Market continues to discuss the fact that China is still booking for Nov/Dec/Jan slots. USDA announced 132,000 MT of beans sold to China and 126,000 MT sold to unknown, however, the focus will be shifted to the Brazil origin very soon. Weather stays the key issue for Brazil now, so if the weather will be favorable, we are estimating record/near record crop for Brazil. Back to US, Weather across the Midwest continues to be ideal- harvest will move along very nicely and yields can fully surprise the market. Products continue to move along nicely, crush continues to rally and remains at 95 cents right now, oil share remains 33%, this down from 36%  at the start of the month.  Palm oil continues to leak lower and this being an influence on bean oil as well- both charts are nearing a complete roll over. Meal continues to hold its value pretty well, solid support right now at 333, but we are near a point where continued bullish news are required to sustain the trend, not even talking about new highs.

• Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $10.14 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents,
• Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $10.18 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents,
• Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $10.13 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents,
• May 21 Soybeans closed at $10.10 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents,
• Oct 20 Soybean Meal closed at $342.10, up $4.80
• Oct 20 Soybean Oil closed at $32.69, down $0.98

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages