Consulting Agency UkrAgroConsult
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its July 12 Crop Production report forecast 2018 outturn of U.S. spring wheat other than durum at 613.970 million bushels, up 48% from 416.236 million bushels in 2017 and the third highest on record after 1996 and 1992. Durum production was forecast at 74.892 million bushels, up 36% from 54.909 million bushels in 2017, and winter wheat outturn was forecast at 1.192 billion bushels, down 5.131 million bushels, or 0.4%, from the June forecast of 1.197 billion bushels and down 6% from 1.269 billion bushels in 2017.
Spring wheat other than durum average yield was forecast record high at 47.6 bushels per acre, up 6.6 bushels, or 16%, from 41 bushels per acre in 2017, and harvested area was forecast at 12,899,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but up 27% from last year. Record high yields were forecast for North Dakota and Minnesota.
Of the spring wheat total, hard red spring accounted for 583.949 million bushels, up 52% from 385.005 million bushels in 2017.
Durum average yield was forecast at 40.7 bushels per acre, up 15 bushels, or 58%, from 25.7 bushels per acre in 2017. Harvested area was forecast at 1,841,000 acres, unchanged from the June Acreage report but down 14% from 2017.
Winter wheat average yield was forecast at 48 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushel from June and down 2.2 bushels, or 4.4%, from 50.2 bushels per acre last year. Harvested area was forecast at 24,831,000 acres, unchanged from June but down 2% from 25,291,000 acres in 2017.
Of the winter wheat total, hard red winter accounted for 657.385 million bushels, up 1% from June, soft red winter 302.815 million bushels, down 4% from June, and white winter 232.385 million bushels, up slightly from last month.
All wheat production was forecast at 1.881 billion bushels, up 8% from 1.740 billion bushels in 2017. Average yield was forecast at 47.5 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels, or 2.6%, from 46.3 bushels per acre in 2017. All wheat harvested area was forecast at 39,571,000 acres, up 5% from 37,586,000 acres in 2017.
The USDA forecasts were above the average of trade expectations for all wheat and other spring wheat, slightly above for durum and slightly below for winter wheat.
In its July 12 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the USDA. forecast the carryover of U.S. wheat on June 1, 2019, at 985 million bushels, up 39 million bushels, or 4.1%, from 946 million as the June forecast but down 115 million bushels, or 10%, from 1.100 billion bushels on June 1, 2018. The increase resulted from higher beginning stocks and production only partially offset by forecast higher 2018-19 feed and residual use and exports, with the latter forecast at 975 million bushels, up 25 million bushels from June and up 74 million bushels from 901 million bushels in 2017-18.
The USDA forecast the carryover of U.S. soybeans on Sept. 1, 2019, at 580 million bushels, up 195 million bushels, or 51%, from 385 million bushels forecast in June and up 115 million bushels, or 25%, from 465 million bushels forecast for Sept. 1, 2018. Projected 2018-19 soybean exports were 2.040 billion bushels, down 250 million bushels, or 11%, from 2.290 billion bushels as the June forecast and down 45 million bushels, or 2.2%, from 2.085 billion bushels forecast for 2017-18. U.S. soybean exports for 2017-18 were raised 20 million bushels from the June forecast.
The sharp drop in forecast exports for 2018-19 more than offset slightly lower total supply and a 45-million-bushel increase from June in soybean crush, forecast at a record 2.045 billion bus next year.
The average price of soybeans paid to farmers in 2018-19 was forecast to range between $8 and $10.50 per bushel, down 75¢ from the June forecast and compared with $9.35 per bushel forecast for the current year.
“Soybean and product trade changes reflect the impact of China’s recently imposed soybean import duties in addition to other global oilseed supply and demand changes this month,” the USDA said in comments accompanying the WASDE data. “Soybean exports are reduced 250 million bushels to 2.040 billion reflecting the impact of China’s import duties. Despite losing market share to China, soybean exports are supported in other markets as lower U.S. prices increase demand and market share.”
The USDA forecast the carryover of U.S. corn on Sept. 1, 2019, at 1.552 billion bushels, down 25 million bushels from the June forecast and down 475 million bushels, or 23%, from 2.027 billion bushels forecast for Sept. 1, 2018. The decrease from June resulted from higher 2018 corn production, forecast at 14.230 billion bushels, and lower food, seed and industrial use being more than offset by lower beginning stocks, increased feed and residual use and higher exports, with the latter forecast at 2.225 billion bushels in 2018-19, up 125 million bushels from June but down 175 million bushels from 2.400 billion bushels forecast in the current year.
The USDA forecasts for 2018-19 carryover were well below the trade average for corn, well above for soybeans and slightly above for wheat.
After the reports, corn and winter wheat futures traded modestly higher, spring wheat about flat and soy complex futures down slightly.
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