This year there is a considerable disparity in estimates of grain harvest in Ukraine, UkrAgroConsult writes. The official forecast for grain harvest is set in a wide range from 63.54 to 72.4 mln t.
"The pessimistic forecast is based on the consequences of drought in the main grain-producing regions: Odesa, Kherson, Zaporizhzhya. Optimists say that the critical situation with soil moisture is observed only in separate regions, and the rains in late April and early May came on time and managed to largely improve the situation," said Elizaveta Malyshko, grain market expert at UkrAgroConsult.
According to her, UkrAgroConsult is still optimistic based on the probability of precipitation in southern regions over the next 10 days.
It is reported that UkrAgroConsult's corn forecast remains one of the highest in the market. However, there are some doubts about the expediency of sown area expansion due to high world stocks and the risk of price decline.
Sunflower and soybean projections are also positive as a result of high demand and favourable prices.
Wheat estimates are the least diverse – 25.5-26 mln t.
Previously reported that the IGC forecast for global wheat production in 2020/21 is set at 764.4 mln t, 4.1 mln t under the March forecast (768.5 mln t).
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