Low soil moisture content during the fall planting, its uneven distribution over Ukraine leading to the risks of a low germination rate of crops and a decrease in winter wheat acreage. Seedlings had emerged in 90-97% of areas (depending on the crop) that causes no concern as it is an average percentage.
The predominance of warm weather with little snow this past winter caused a soil moisture decline, resumed plant growth from time to time, led to the risk of frost kill in case of a critical temperature drop, the damaging of crops by diseases and pests. As of early spring, winter crops were rated 90% fair to good, mostly fair.
As of April 10, winter crops in most areas had no more than 55-75% of normal effective moisture in the 0-100 cm soil layer. The moisture distribution over Ukraine is uneven, with the worst situation seen in its southern regions.
Weather becomes the dominant driver of the redistribution of planted areas in the 2020 crop forecast
UkrAgroConsult estimates total grain crop at 70-73 MMT depending of losses because of draught conditions.
In MY 2020/21, the planted area of oilseeds is expected to expand (+3-4%) at the expense of a cut in grain plantings along with reduced yield of all oil crops. Under the droughty conditions, sunflower is the most promising oil crop.
UkrAgroConsult will release its next adjusted forecast in a month, on May 21-31.
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