Following the production increase, grain exports are also expected to grow by 8-9% in MY 2018/19. However, the season has a few peculiarities.
Global demand for wheat continues to strengthen steadily. At the same time, shrinking grain supply from Russia, the EU and Australia causes concern among importers and provokes a price increase even at the season start and during harvesting campaign. In Ukraine, the food segment is most susceptible to price growth, because humid weather while harvesting deteriorated the wheat crop quality.
Due to active wheat exports from the country in MY 2017/18, Ukraine entered the 2018/19 season with all-time low inventories. In turn, combined with the wheat production decline, this led to a fall in the country’s 2018/19 export potential by 10% compared to MY 2017/18.
The pace of wheat exports in the first quarter of the season is 12% down from last year. This is natural in view of somewhat lower export potential.
Analytical report "Black Sea Grain" contains detailed information on the latest trends in grain exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior, crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea region.
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