Grain Market Analyst
Since the 2014/15 season, Ukraine has been annually supplying 1.7 MMT to 4.1 MMT of grains to China, which is an extremely important export destination. Ukrainian grain shipments to China peaked in MY 2018/19.
The pace of shipments depends mostly on China’s own grain crop, i.e. its grain shortage, and the price ratio between grains of different origins (including delivery).
Over the last five years, Ukrainian corn has been winning competition and accounting for the lion’s share of corn purchases by China, reports UkrAgroConsult.
Apart from Ukraine, the largest corn suppliers to China include the U.S. and, to a much lesser degree, Latin American countries. The trade war between the U.S. and China helped to further enhance Ukrainian corn’s position in the Chinese market.
Ukraine’s position in the barley market is not that strong: some 10% of purchases. Ukrainian barley faces competition from Australia, which is a traditional barley supplier to China, and Canada, which continuously steps up exports to this market.
At the same time, China continues diversifying its grain suppliers. Noteworthy is that China intends to step up corn and barley purchases in MY 2019/20. Such an increase opens good prospects for Ukrainian grain exports. The season’s beginning confirms optimistic forecasts: 0.87 MMT of barley was already shipped to China in July-October that is the highest volume in the history of bilateral trade.
Taking the above factors into account, Ukrainian grain exports to the Middle Kingdom may set new records in MY 2019/20.
Full version of the article is available to subscribers for Online Analytics “Black Sea Grain” in the new innovative platform AgriSupp.com by UkrAgroConsult. Agrisupp is a reliable analytical tool for agri market participants that contains historical and current market data, daily updates on grain, oilseed and pulses markets. We offer 7-days trial! Completely free!
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