USDA: Forecast for the Black Sea oilseed crop in MY 2020/21 above expectations
In the May report, the USDA raised its estimate for the 2019/20 oilseed crop in the Black Sea region to 49.931 MMT (+0.1 MMT as the rapeseed crop forecast for Ukraine was adjusted to 6.489 MMT), UkrAgroConsult reports.
The USDA forecast for the 2020/21 oilseed crop is put at 51.485 MMT (+1.554 MMT from the 2019/20 estimate):
– sunseed – 36.040 MMT (+0.761 MMT);
– soybean – 8.310 MMT (+0.147 MMT);
– rapeseed – 7.135 MMT (+0.646 MMT).
USDA: Oilseed production estimates for Black Sea and CIS countries, KMT
|
Sunseed |
Soybeans |
Rapeseed |
||||||
2020/21 May |
2019/20 May |
2019/20 April |
2020/21 May |
2019/20 May |
2019/20 April |
2020/21 May |
2019/20 May |
2019/20 April |
|
Ukraine |
17 000 |
16 500 |
16 500 |
3 500 |
3 699 |
3 699 |
4 000 |
3 465 |
3 365 |
Russia |
15 500 |
15 305 |
15 305 |
4 700 |
4 359 |
4 359 |
2 100 |
2 040 |
2 040 |
Kazakhstan |
1000 |
918 |
918 |
– |
– |
– |
320 |
241 |
241 |
Moldova |
950 |
806 |
806 |
– |
– |
– |
70 |
77 |
77 |
Turkey |
1 590 |
1 750 |
1 750 |
110 |
105 |
105 |
95 |
88 |
88 |
Belarus |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
550 |
578 |
578 |
Total |
36 040 |
35 279 |
35 279 |
8 310 |
8 163 |
8 163 |
7 135 |
6 489 |
6 389 |
Oilseed crop forecast for Ukraine
– USDA – 24.5 MMT (23.7 MMT in 2019);
– UkrAgroConsult – 23.2 MMT (23.96 MMT in 2019);
– undoubtedly, sunflower and rape plantings will be expanded and those of soy will be reduced, but UkrAgroConsult sees a less significant reduction, just by 70 Th ha vs a 165 Th ha drop suggested by the USDA;
– the USDA expects yield growth in all oilseeds in Ukraine, predicting sunseed and rapeseed yields to hit record highs (sunflower seed – 2.58 MT/ha, soybeans – 2.41 MT/ha, rapeseed – 2.96 MT/ha). UkrAgroConsult’s forecast is based on three-year average figures.
Ukraine: Oilcrops production forecast – 2020
|
UkrAgroConsult |
USDA |
Sunseed |
15.8-16.2 |
17.0 |
Soybean |
4.0 |
3.5 |
Rapeseed |
3-3.1 |
4.0 |
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