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USDA continues reducing grain production estimates for the Black Sea region



Consulting Agency UkrAgroConsult


In the July report, the USDA reduced again its estimates for grain production in the Black Sea region, reports UkrAgroConsult.

Compared with the June forecast, the USDA cut its value for 2018/19 wheat production in Ukraine by 1 MMT, to 25.5 MMT. The wheat production forecast for Russia was decreased by 1.5 MMT, to 67 MMT.

The USDA also lowered its estimates for Russian production of corn and barley. Compared with the June forecast, the current estimate for 2018/19 corn production in Russia is reduced by 3 MMT, to 12 MMT. The July forecast for Russian barley production in MY 2018/19 is at 17 MMT – this is 1.5 MMT below the USDA’s June estimate.

In line with the production forecast reduction, the USDA revised its estimates for Black Sea grain exports as well. So, the July forecasts for Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports in MY 2018/19 were lowered against the June figures by 1 and 0.5 MMT, respectively. The forecast for barley exports from Russia was cut by 700 KMT, to 4.8 MMT.

At the same time, the July estimates for wheat exports from Ukraine and Russia in MY 2017/18 were increased compared with the June forecasts, by 300 KMT and 500 KMT, respectively. In addition, the forecasts for 2018/19 grain exports from Kazakhstan were upwardly adjusted: up 500 KMT for wheat and up 100 KMT for barley.

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