USDA forecast for Russian wheat production exceeded all expectations

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USDA forecast for Russian wheat production exceeded all expectations



Consulting Agency UkrAgroConsult


On September 12, the USDA published its regular estimates for grain production and exports. As UkrAgroConsult’s analysts predicted, the figure for Russian wheat production in MY 2018/19 was raised at once by 3 MMT from August’s estimates.

Along with the increase in the wheat production estimate, the forecasts for Russian barley production and exports in MY 2018/19 were also raised by 500 KMT each compared to August’s forecast.

Contrary to our expectations, the USDA left unchanged its forecast for Russian corn production, ignoring the fact that Russian corn yields are at a several year low.  

For a second straight month, USDA analysts have been raising their estimates for 2018/19 wheat production in Kazakhstan. September’s forecast was increased by another 500 KMT. In our opinion, these estimates look overstated due to the current situation with wheat harvesting in Kazakhstan, which is 60% behind last year because of rainy weather in main growing regions. In addition, the yield figures are not record high either.  

The changes in September’s USDA forecast concerned Kazakh barley too. The estimates for production and exports of this crop in MY 2018/19 were increased by 700 KMT and 600 KMT, respectively. 

Finally, USDA analysts reduced their September forecast for Ukrainian barley production and exports in MY 2018/19, by 400 KMT and 200 KMT, respectively, UkrAgroConsult’s analysts note.

More detailed information on the latest trends in grain exports, supply and demand balances with breakdown by crop, price behavior, crop conditions and progress in harvesting/planting in the countries of Black Sea Region is available to subscribers for weekly market report "Black Sea Grain" by UkrAgroConsult.


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