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USDA predicts lower carryover for corn, wheat and soybeans



Consulting Agency


The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report initially projected U.S. wheat carryover on June 1, 2019, at 955 million bus, down 155 million bushels, or 11%, from 1.070 billion bushels forecast for 2018. The increase resulted from forecasts for higher production being more than offset by lower beginning stocks, lower imports, higher feed and residual use and higher exports with only a miner bump in food use.

U.S. all-wheat production in 2018 was forecast at 1.821 billion bushels, up 80 million bushels, or 4.6%, from 1.741 billion bushels in 2017. Projected production for 2018 was based on a survey estimate for winter wheat of 1.192 billion bushels, down 6% from 1.269 billion bushels in 2017, and trendline projections for durum and other spring wheat 629 million bushels, up 33% from 2017.

US corn production
The USDA’s initial projection for the carryover of corn on Sept. 1, 2019, was 1.682 billion bushels, down 500 million bushels, or 23%, from 2.182 million bushels forecast for the current year. The reduction was the result of forecast lower beginning stocks, lower production and higher use of corn for food and ethanol production only partially offset by lower exports and lower feed and residual use. Corn production in 2019 was projected based on trendline analysis at 14.040 billion bushels, down 3.9% from 14.604 million bushels in 2017 but still the fourth highest on record if realized.

US soybean production
The USDA initially projected U.S. soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2019, at 415 million bushels, down 115 million bushels, or 22%, from 530 million bushels forecast for 2018. The decrease was the result of forecast lower production, higher crushings and higher exports only partially offset by larger beginning stocks. Trendline soybean production in 2018 was forecast at 4.280 billion bushels, down 2.6% from record production of 4.392 billion bushels in 2017 but still the third highest on record if realized.

USDA 2019 carryover projections for corn and wheat were above the average of trade expectations while the soybean projection was well below the trade average. USDA production forecasts for corn and soybeans were below the average of trade expectations while the wheat production forecast was above the trade average.

Wheat futures traded lower after the report while corn futures posted narrow, mostly lower changes and soybean futures edged higher.


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