Technical Analysis 13/07/2020

Wheat September 2020.

SRW futures were down the most on Monday, with losses of 4 to 11 cents. HRW futures were 3 to 6 3/4 cents in the red at the closing bell. MPLS spring wheat futures are down 6 1/2 to 7 cents so far. Winter wheat harvest is 68% complete nationally, but finished in AR, TX, and OK. KS wheat harvest still had 5% to go as of the 12th. The weekly update reported spring wheat was 80% headed, which is still 5 ppts behind average. SD spring wheat was 95% headed, compared to their average of 91%. The weekly Export Inspections report showed wheat shipments at 624,211 MT, which is up 67% wk/wk and up 79% yr/yr. SRW wheat was the top shipped variety, with 44.9% of the total. China was the top destination for the week’s shipments with 18% of the total. China and Taiwan collectively accounted for 32.5% of the week’s wheat exports. IKAR lowered their most recent Russian wheat forecast to match USDA at 76.5 MMT. Egypt issued an international wheat tender for August delivery.

• Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.24 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents,
• Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.49, down 3 cents,
• Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.18 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents.

Pivot PointsJul

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages.

Corn September 2020.

Corn followed Friday’s drops by adding 6 1/2 to 8 1/2 cents more to the downside today. Traders responded to the weather forecasts showing more potential rains since Friday’s forecasts. NASS reported corn silking at 29% after the close, compared to the 5-yr average of 32%. NASS had 3% of corn in dough stage, which is even with the 5-yr average. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report this morning showed 902,623 MT (35.5 mbu) on the week ending July 9. That was down 4.84 mbu wk/wk, but was 30.7% above the same week last year. China got 13.2% of the shipments, but Japan and Mexico were each over 200k MT as the top destinations. Using weekly data, the report has accumulated shipments at 1.385 bbu with 8 weeks remaining. The spot DDGS to soymeal ratio is 0.73 in China, compared to 0.42 stateside. ArcMercosul reported Brazilian second corn crop harvest is 34.9% of planted, compared to 49% at the same time last year.

• Jul 20 Corn closed at $3.34, down 6 1/2 cents,
• Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.28 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents,
• Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.36 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,
• Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.47 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents.

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

Soybeans August 2020.

Despite the large drops, the new crop soy/corn ratio is at 2.601, up 0.17 from Friday. Soymeal traded $7.7 to $7.9/ton in the red. Bean oil futures closed the session with losses of 14 to 15 points. CME’s synthetic soybean crush spread (not tradeable) for September futures was a four year low (for the second month spread) at 61 1/2. The July spread was at 54. Soybeans blooming were 8% above normal, with 48% of the 2020/21 crop blooming as of July 12. NASS reported that 11% of beans were setting pods, which is 1ppt ahead of average. Bean conditions ratings were 68% good/ex, which is down 3 percentage points from last week. The weekly Export Inspections report showed 17.98 mbu of beans shipped on the week ending July 9. That was down 7% wk/wk and 43% below the same week last year. Of the week’s shipments, 5.9 mbu (33%) were destined for China. With 90,458 MT, Indonesia was the top non China destination. MYTD bean exports are at 1.391 bbu, that is below last year’s pace and is the lowest for week 45 since the 12/13 MY. Iran is tendering for 200k MT of soymeal.

• Jul 20 Soybeans closed at $8.76 1/2, down 15 cents,
• Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.74, down 13 1/4 cents,
• Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.71 1/2, down 14 cents,
• Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.75 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents,
• Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $284.60, down $7.90
• Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $28.08, down $0.14

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages