Technical Analysis 8/10/2020

Wheat September 2020

Wheat was down again today. SRW wheat was down the most, with September off 4 ½ cents. Sept SRW wheat has traded lower for the last 5/6 days and a total loss of 36 cents. KC futures closed Monday’s session with 1 1/4 to 1 1/2 cent losses. MGE wheat fell back 3 1/4 to 3 3/4 cents. USDA’s weekly export data from the week ending August 6 showed that 379,949 MT of wheat was exported. That was down 32% wk/wk, and 47% below the same week last year. Of the week’s wheat shipments, 23% was destined for Japan. MYTD wheat exports via the weekly report were 2% ahead of 19/20’s pace with 5.067 MMT. Ukraine’s wheat harvest was 87% complete as of August 6. As French wheat harvest wraps up, estimates are for 29-30 MMT. NASS reported 90% of this year’s winter wheat harvest was complete, the average is 93% and trade was expecting 91%. Spring wheat harvest was 10% behind the 5-yr average, with new crop 15% cut as of August 9. Pakistan is tendering for 1.5 MMT of optional origin wheat. Egypt also opened an international wheat tender, with results expected tomorrow.

• Sep 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.91, down 4 1/2 cents,
• Sep 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.14, down 1 1/2 cents,
• Sep 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.90 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents

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Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

Corn September 2020

Corn futures gained 1 1/2 to 2 3/4 cents to start the new week. Weekly export shipments were the largest since June 18. A derecho with 100+ mph winds also swept through part of IA, flattening crops. As of August 9, NASS says that 11% of new crop corn in the 18 major states was dented. The 5-yr average is 12%. Also from the Crop Progress report, 59% of corn was in the dough stage, and only 3% of the national crop had yet to reach silking stage. Corn conditions fell back a point on the Brugler500 index to 379. Colorado ratings fell the most, dropping back 20 points to 295. From the week ending August 6, USDA reported 1.151 MMT (45.3 mbu) of corn was exported. That was 16.5 mbu above the same week last year. Of the week’s shipments, China was the top destination with 23% of the total, 21% was for Mexico, and 15% was destined for Japan. Accumulated corn exports were up to 1.54 bbu, which still trails last year’s pace by 14%.

• Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.10 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents,
• Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.23, up 2 1/4 cents,
• Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.34 3/4, up 2 cents,
• May 21 Corn closed at $3.43, up 1 3/4 cents

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Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

Soybeans August 2020

The soy complex was higher in beans and meal, but oil closed lower. Front month soybean futures closed the session with gains of as much as 6 1/4 cents led by in delivery August. The other front months were 4 3/4 to 5 3/4 cents higher. Meal futures were up by $2.2 to $2.5 at the closing bell. Ahead of Friday’s expiration, there have been 1,122 contracts of August meal delivered against futures. MTD soybean oil deliveries sit at 764 contracts. There have still been zero deliveries vs. August beans. Bean oil futures closed on Monday with 7 to 16 point losses. USDA announced three large new crop bean export sales this morning. Private exporters reported sales of 111,000 MT to unknown, 324,000 MT to China, and another 264,000 MT to China in delayed reporting. The weekly Export Inspections report from USDA showed that 23.4 mbu of soybeans were shipped on the week ending Aug 6. That was up 14% wk/wk but down by 11% from the same week of 19/20. The Crop Progress report showed that 75% of new crop beans were setting pods. That was up from 59% last week, and was 7% ahead of average. Conditions improved on the week, up 4 points on the Brugler500 index to 385.

• Aug 20 Soybeans closed at $8.76 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents,
• Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $8.70, up 4 1/4 cents,
• Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $8.73 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents,
• Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $8.79 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents,
• Aug 20 Soybean Meal closed at $282.20, up $2.20
• Aug 20 Soybean Oil closed at $31.19, down $0.16

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

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