Technical Analysis 9/09/2020

Wheat December 2020.

Last week Chicago hit a 19-week high. USDA’s weekly Export Inspections report showed 25.564 mbu of wheat shipments for the week ending 9/3. That was up 5.94 mbu wk/wk and 10.37 mbu yr/yr. Spring wheat was reported by USDA at 83% cut through the 6th, up from 67% last week but still 5 percentage points behind the 5-yr average. Winter wheat was reported at 5% planted, which is 2 ppts ahead of the average pace. Winter wheat planting in WA was up from 16% to 32% complete, compared to their average of 17%  U.S. Chicago wheat putting in some resistance now, not a clear double top but resistance, that 200 day MA remains just below now, KC wheat easing lower as well and now back below its 200 day MA too.  MATIF wheat hitting its resistance at 1.88+ as history has shown as well. US Wheat remains the world’s most expensive, Black Sea the cheapest. FX market helping economics in Russia, Market still realizes that Russian farmers remain reluctant sellers- the ‘system’ has created this attitude over the past few years and it continues to work regardless of crop size.  The recent push higher in FOB prices now has demand a bit more silent/reluctant to pay up as well, Black Sea weather is not the most satisfying and just like  Western EU could use some rain, southern parts of Russia getting some, but more is needed, winter grains plantings need a few good rainy days.

• Dec 20 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.44 1/4, down 6 cents,
• Dec 20 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.69 1/2, down 3 cents,
• Dec 20 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.36 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents.

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving AveragesSep 08, 2020 10:46PM GMT

Corn September 2020.

Market continues to ask the question about China demand. Looking at the weather and possible typhoons there it still possible to have growing demand from China, however, seems the peak demand is behind us at this point. The weekly Export Inspections report had corn shipments from the week ending 09/03 at 781,838 MT. That was split 547,716 MT of old crop and 234,122 MT for 2020/21 crop. Weekly data suggest 2019/20’s corn shipments were 1.662 bbu. The Crop Progress report this afternoon had 97% of the 2020/21 corn crop in the dough stage as of 9/6, and 79% dented. NASS also reported 25% of new crop corn was mature, led by NC and TX with 88% and 73% of their crops mature. NASS reported the week’s condition ratings at 61% good/ex for a Brugler500 score of 357. That was UNCH from last week’s score.

• Sep 20 Corn closed at $3.51, up 3 3/4 cents,
• Dec 20 Corn closed at $3.61 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents,
• Mar 21 Corn closed at $3.72, up 3 1/2 cents,
• May 21 Corn closed at $3.78 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents.  

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

Soybeans November 2020.

This now marks the 11th straight session of higher trading days for soybeans.  Crop conditions expected to hold steady/decline slightly, some needed rains fell over the long weekend but cold temps now remain, the exact impact of all this is a bit unclear but the market gapped higher to start today.  Oil gapped higher as well and remains higher as well. USDA announced two large new crop bean export sales to China this morning, the first was for 400,000 MT and the other was for 264,000 MT. The weekly Export Inspections report had soybean shipments at 1.295 MMT for the week ending Sept 3. That was split 830,200 MT and 465,262 MT for old and new crop respectively.  China Aug meat imports fall 17%, but still YTD imports remain +73% vs LY as China’s domestic supply is short.  Per last week, Soybeans closed up 19 cents, meal up 8.2, and oil down 31 pts. The weekly Crop Progress report showed 20% of new crop beans were dropping leaves, compared to the 5-yr average of 16%. USDA’s Ag Attaché sees China’s soybean production at 18 MMT for 2020/21. They also foresee 93 MMT of crush opening the door for a 4.4% increase to bean imports, @ 95 MMT.

• Sep 20 Soybeans closed at $9.73, up 3 1/2 cents,
• Nov 20 Soybeans closed at $9.73, up 5 cents,
• Jan 21 Soybeans closed at $9.78 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents,
• Mar 21 Soybeans closed at $9.77, up 3 1/4 cents,
• Oct 20 Soybean Meal closed at $309.40, down $2.70
• Oct 20 Soybean Oil closed at $33.27, up $0.50.

Pivot Points

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages

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