Russia. Wheat export prices continued growing last week

Prices in the Russian wheat market mostly continued growing. Export prices for 11.5% protein wheat closed the week up on average another $1/MT FOB, while those for 12.5% protein wheat are stable in deep-sea ports and up some $2-3/MT FOB in small ports, reports UkrAgroConsult.

Domestic prices also kept climbing up despite advancing harvest. Growers hold back sales of new-crop grain in anticipation of a price increase. The market is short of offers – this underpin domestic prices mostly in the South and in ports.

Growth in Russian wheat price results from further reduction of market estimates for Russia’s 2019 wheat crop. On average, the market forecasts for Russian wheat output have fallen by 5‑10 MMT since July 1.

According to Russia’s state statistics agency, wheat stocks at all type farms, except for small ones, totaled 11.9 MMT as of July 1 (down 14.4% from last year). At the same time, in southern Russia they amounted to 6.1 MMT (+0.6%).

The pace of grain exports in the beginning of MY 2019/20 is behind last season.

Although the estimates for Russia’s wheat crop are still higher than last year, 2019/20 wheat exports will be lower due to much smaller carryovers than last year.

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UkrAgroConsult